Chinese Algebra: Understanding the Coming Changes of the Modern Chinese State.

摘要

Much is written concerning the impending hegemony of an emerging Chinese state that will dominate the world economically. Like its predecessors, the British and American empires, the Chinese empire will likely require a large military to ensure the continuity of this economic empire and thus possibly be a threat to the national interests of America and other democratic nations. A glance at the numbers behind these predictions supports a near certainty of China passing the United States in gross domestic product (GDP) by 2027, but a closer examination reveals a much more complex mathematical function which does not paint such a positive picture for the Chinese nation- state. Most people are uncomfortable with mathematical analysis and tend to examine trends by projecting straight lines or exponential curves out for a number of years, which will not give an accurate forecast. Nature typically gives us mathematical curves of a second or third order, not straight lines, requiring a more complex analysis. Curves for China in regards to economic output, military spending, and, most importantly, population, are not as favorable as some of the predictions warrant. The first examination should be on the population curve as this has a major bearing on all other factors. China's draconian One-Child Policy is estimated to have prevented roughly 400 million births. While not feeding this many mouths may benefit China today, it points to an irreversible trend of manpower shortages with economic and military consequences. Interestingly, China's current birth rate of 1.54 children per couple is close to the birth rate of other economically- established Northern Asian nations such as Japan with 1.20 and South Korea with 1.22.