JUGFAE (Jug Contained Fuel Air Explosives) Crane Error

摘要

A concept called JUGFAE, JUG-contained Fuel-Air Explosive, was devised for clearing minefields in uncontested, rear areas. The concept prescribes a line of jugs set in by a crane standing on cleared ground. The jugs must be carefully spaced so that when they simultaneously burst, the fuel-air clouds can overlap and give one large explosion. The process is then repeated. This report documents the mathematics of the error if the crane misspaces the jugs. Six different methods are presented. For a probability of 0.135 of mislaying a jug outside a tolerance circle whose diameter is no more than the cloud overlap expected, the probability of not detonating a 10-jug line is only 0.0404. The failure probability grows just less than directly proportionally to the number of jugs in the line. Keywords: Mine clearance probability; Spatial distribution; Fuel-air explosives; Run theory. (edc)