Simulation Model for Dynamic System Availability Analysis.

摘要

A dynamic Monte Carlo system availability simulation model is developed. DYMCAM is based on three fundamental modeling objectives. First, to provide the ability to analyze time-dependent availability of dynamic systems. Second, to provide a model which is easy to apply and interpret. And third, to create a model which can easily be modified to incorporate additional features as needed. The output generated by the program includes time-dependent system unavailability information and average system unavailability over the duration of the simulated time period. DYMCAM is tested on several basic availability analysis problems to demonstrate program capabilities. These tests include a single component with exponential failure and repair times, a single component with two repair states, a two-out-of-three pump failure system, and a phased mission problem requiring the forced change of a system component state after the start of the analysis. A modification of the DYMCAM program was also developed to demonstrate the capability of treating continuous process variables in a dynamic simulation model. Results were compared with analytical results where possible, and with Markovian analysis techniques in other cases. The simulation model provided accurate unavailability results on all example problems tested. Further work needs to be done to expand the capabilities of the basic DYMCAM model and to continue program testing on more complex problems. Keywords: Theses; Computer programs. (jhd)