Theory of Collective Induction. Final Report

摘要

The mission of this contract was to develop and test a theory of collective induction, the cooperative search for descriptive, predictive, and explanatory generalizations, rules, and principles. The report consists of five parts: (1) a general theory of group problem solving and decision making in the form of four postulates; (2) competitive tests of the predictions of 20 a priori social combination models for 200 four-person groups on a rule induction task; (3) an a posteriori theory of collective induction in the form of three further postulates to account for the social combination processes of these 200 groups; (4) competitive tests of the predictions of these three postulates as a 21st a consideration of the generality of the theory. Keywords: Collective induction; Induction; Decision making. (sdw)