Knowledge Elicitation Study of Military Planning

摘要

The Critical Decision Method (CDM) has been developed as a knowledge elicitationtool for probing proficient decision making. This report describes the use of CDM during three different Division, Battalion, and Brigade-level planning exercises at Ft. Leavenworth, Ft. Riley, and Ft. Hood. CDM was successfully applied in each case. The third exercise, a computer-driven activity at Ft. Hood, used the Army Battle Training Simulator System (ARTBASS). It was the most complex and realistic of the exercises, and the CDM was supplemented by tapes of the operations planning activity. A microanalysis performed on these data generated 64 planning segments during a 5-hour period. The data showed a number of features of the operations planning process. Almost 93% of the information types used were directly accessible; there was little searching for additional information and not a single instance where data on enemy action were sought from S2 (Intelligence). In addition, most decisions were handled through recognitional strategies; in only 1 of 27 decisions was there a comparative evaluation of several options. The analysis of results was used to recommend features of training programs and decision support systems. In addition, a clearer concept emerged for using the CDM in conjunction with the other data-gathering and analytic techniques. Keywords; Critical decision method; Decision making; Distributed decision making; Content analysis; Military planning; Knowledge elicitation; Battlefield management; ARTBASS. (jg)