Annual Extreme Lake Elevations by Total Probability Theorem

摘要

Annual extreme water levels on the Great Lakes, whether maximums or minimums,have a high serial dependence. Therefore, application of traditional frequency analysis techniques must be interpreted in a different manner and more sophisticated statistical techniques must be applied to account for this dependence. The terms Percent Chance Exceedence and Return Period are applied to the expectation values of annual extreme events that are random in nature and have an equal liklihood of occurring in any given year. Annual extreme lake elevations on the Great Lakes are not random from one year to the next; therefore, the usual terms to define the expectation should not be used to describe events. An acceptable term is Percent of Years Exceeded. This is