Application of Decision-Making Models to Foreign Policy: A Case Study of theReflagging of Kuwait Oil Tankers

摘要

The purpose of this research was to apply conceptual models of decision-making toa case study of the reflagging of the Kuwait oil tankers that occurred in 1987-1988. The actions of key players in United States foreign policy-making were analyzed using the rational actor model, organizational-process model, bureaucratic-politics model and political-process model. From the evidence found on the interactions between the President, his department secretaries, advisors, and Congress, the political-process model developed by Roger Hilsman best described the case. The other three models (developed by Graham Allison), were useful in describing the actions of parts of the policy-making process, but not as completely as Hilsman's political-process model. All power centers agreed on the objectives of the U.S. action in the Persian Gulf, but conflict ensued over the means to accomplish the goals of the policy. The President and his advisors were for the most part united on the policy. The fight between the President and Congress centered on the war powers resolution and went on for more than a year. Personal ideologies were more important than organizational perspectives in determining the actions of decision-makers. Keywords: Foreign policy, Persian Gulf, Kuwait, Decision making, Theses, Tanker ships, President(United States). (RWJ)