Evaluation of a Method of Verbally Expressing Degree of Belief by Selecting Phrases from a List.

摘要

This report describes a method for verbal expression of degree of uncertainty. The method requires the subject to select a phrase from a list that spans the full range of probabilities. In a second, optional step, the subject indicates the numerical meaning of each phrase. Alternative list orders were compared to determine the effects of presenting the phrases in ordered sequence or randomly. When the verbal expressions were arranged in random order, ordinal position had a significant effect on the selection of expressions, and the preference for phrases with broader ranges of meaning was stronger in the second half of the list. However, these effects did not occur when the phrases were listed in ascending or descending order. Considerations of accuracy and interpersonal agreement also support the use of ordered phrase lists.