1990s: A Decade of Transition to a New European Security Order.

摘要

The 1990s promise to be a decade of major structural change in Europe -- the most profound restructuring of the political, economic, and military balance of power in Europe since World War II. Whether or not the United States emerges at decade's end with an enduring role in the European security equation consonant with its interests depends on whether it correctly assesses the changes now underway, having clear goals and a road map to guide the process. This essay examines the multifaceted nature of the changes now sweeping Europe in Soviet policies; in the peaceful democratic revolutions in Central and Eastern Europe; in the coming unification of Germany; in the strengthening of the political integration of the European Community; in the pan-European security environment beginning to take shape in the CSCE process; and, inevitably, in the need to adapt NATO to Europe's new security needs. The thesis of this paper is that the United States has an enduring geopolitical interest in Europe's security, and that that interest is best pursued by maintaining an institutional link between it and the democracies of Western Europe. By extending deterrence to the NATO European states, the United States has for 40 years helped to maintain the balance of power in Europe, and that role must continue. As Europe changes, however, NATO must adapt and so must the U.S. role in Europe's security. First, NATO must be sufficiently flexible to include a unified Germany. Second, NATO must accommodate the emerging Europeanization of Europe's defense. Third, the U.S. role in NATO must change, with fewer commitments consonant with its reduced available resources. This paper addresses these issues and highlights the enduring role of extended nuclear deterrence and the new role of reassurance for fostering stability in post-Cold War Europe. Key milestones for the 1990s that will be critical to the successful completion of the process of European security transformation also are discussed. 7.