Evolution of Modern Battle: An Analysis of Historical Data

摘要

This monograph conducts an analysis of historical data to detect trends in warand the evolution to modern tactical battle. It also investigates the continued use of Lanchester-based attrition models. Military analysts have used the attrition models of Lanchester in an attempt to capture the dynamics of modern battle to answer questions for tactical and strategic decisionmakers. These questions involve technical evaluations of weapon systems, force structure, doctrinal issues, and training. The evolution of modern battle is marked by quantitative difference as measured by the casualty to initial force ratio. There is a trend toward decreasing ratios that coincides with the post-American Civil War period. The five technological innovations of the nineteenth century: rifled muskets, breechloaders, magazines, barbed wire, and smokeless powder were the catalysts of change in the tactical conduct of warfare. The lethality of the new weapons with their increased accuracy and range combined with the substantial increase in rates of fire forced the change in battlefield tactics.