Heads I'm Right, Tails It Was Chance: The Strange Case of Irrationality in Program Risk Management.

摘要

There's a difference between having lung cancer (an issue) and living in a way that increases the probability of contracting lung cancer (risk). The former requires treatment, the later requires actions to lower the probability. Some of these mitigations are exercising, increasing intake of healthy food, or quitting smoking. However, we all know people who smoke, don t exercise, or consistently eat one too many desserts despite knowing the risks. Is it irrational. Yes. Is it explainable. Largely. Like those who irrationally continue in risky life choices, sometimes acquisition professionals persist, consciously or not, in managing programs without adequately rationalizing our understanding of programmatic risks. Many times we place ourselves in the thick of thin things at the expense of long-term program success. Often, though, we allow our internal biases and fallacious thinking to skew objective thinking of risks.