Stochastic Expert Choice in Ship Production Project Management.

摘要

Shipbuilders have traditionally delayed major change decisions until the last moment and often not until it was too late to solve a problem. The reason was largely risk aversiveness of shipyard management, an unfortunate attitude in an industry subject to large uncertainties and risks. Expert choice, or the analytic hierarchical process (AHP), offers an approach which allows consideration of all the factors, as well as the risk attitudes of the decision makers and others involved. The basic AHP method was modified to permit consideration of the probabilities associated with hierarchical relationships of factors and decision makers. AHP is further suggested to include the effect of time on the determination of the risk, and time dependence of the outcome of alternative decisions. Thereby AHP permits determination of not only the most effective choices, but also timing of complex decisions met so frequently in ship production project management.