Forecasting Digital Microcircuit Obsolescence

摘要

This report documents a procedure for forecasting digital microcircuitObsolescence at the Defense Electronics Supply Center, Dayton, OH. Obsolescence is caused by rapid advancement in digital technology and decrease in commercial demand while military demand still continues. In logistics parlance, parts obsolescence is known as a Diminishing Manufacturing Source (DMS) problem. Continued supply of an obsolete DMS item is assured via substitution, alternate sourcing or a one time buy equal to the lifetime requirements of the item. Emulation is a recent alternative which explores the possibility of replacing obsolete digital microcircuits with state of the art devices which can be manufactured and supplied on demand. The report recommends use of a statistical model which forecasts DMS items from a population of presently non-DMS items belonging to obsolete digital microcircuit technologies. The items forecast by the model should be evaluated for their emulation potential.