Shifting Sands: Iranian Strategy in a Changing Middle East.

摘要

The Middle East is central to Iran's strategic goals. The Islamic Republic's tensions with the United States, its simmering conflict with Israel, and its ongoing rivalry with its Arab neighbors (particularly Saudi Arabia), make the region the primary target of Iran s strategic efforts to build influence and establish deterrence against its enemies. Iran has relied on its robust activities in the region to help it make partnerships, create a client base supportive of its strategic goals, gain leverage over its rivals and competitors, and build links between its economy and those of its neighbors. Although Iran has had success over time in advancing its strategic agenda through these actions, the dramatic upheaval of the Arab Spring and the immense pressures facing Iran (such as sanctions) have forced it to adapt to a turbulent strategic environment. This report examines Iran's Middle East strategy and how this strategy has been impacted by a variety of factors. We argue that a confluence of pressures and changes to the Middle East have proved challenging to Iran's national security and undermined its strategic efforts in the region. Although we look at the historical roots of Iran s strategic perspectives, our temporal and geographic focus is more fixed. Geographically, we look at how Iran s strategy plays out west and south of Iran, primarily in the Persian Gulf (including Iraq and Yemen) and the Levant. Temporally, our concentration is on events of the last few years and especially since the emergence of the Arab Spring in 2011. These parameters enable us to examine the effects of contemporary regional political dynamics on Iran's strategy and behavior in the areas most vital to Iran's interests and deterrence efforts against America and Israel. Though parts of Central, South, and East Asia are also important to aspects of Iranian strategy, they are secondary to Iran's interests in the Middle East, and are beyond the limited scope of this study.