Evaluation of Relative Importance Judgment Methods in the Context of CausalPrediction

摘要

This study investigated five methods for measuring the relative importancesituational factors in predicting mission success in a planning context. The methods were ranking, 2-category rating (yes or no), ratio scale rating (magnitude estimation), probability change, and necessity or sufficiency judgments. Interpersonal agreement was highest using the probability change method. Comparison of the importance profiles produced by the various methods showed that ranking, rating, and yes or no were most similar to each other. Respondents indicated their preference among the methods and evaluated the methods' usefulness for a number of purposes. The ranking and probability change methods were most preferred and rated most useful. Subjective probability, Judgment, Relative importance, Prediction, Measurement, Situation assessment.