Multiple Goals in Dynamic Decision Making: An Experimental Approach.

摘要

Leaders in both the military and civilian sectors make a series of interrelated decisions in real time to achieve goals. These decisions involve the allocation of resources, such as ships and aircraft to influence the situation facing the decision maker. NEWFIRE is a computer-based simulation of a forest fire fighting task that allows the experimenter to control both the goals and the environment in which the decisions are made and thereby explore the effects these variables have on the decision maker. The objective of this thesis was to use the NEWFIRE microworld to determine the effects that multiple goals and system complexity have on decisions. Specifically, subjects were given one, two or three goals, and confronted with three scenarios of varying complexity. The results show that subjects given only one objective outperformed those given two or three objectives. The results also show that the performance of subjects on the most complex scenario was worse than on the less complex scenarios. Multiple goals, Decision making, Dynamic decision making, Microworld, NEWFIRE.