Stochastic Vehicle Mobility Forecasts Using the NATO Reference Mobility Model.Report 2 Extension of Procedures and Application to Historic Studies

摘要

This report is the second in a series that documents the conversion of the NATOReference Mobility Model from a deterministic code to a stochastic one. The first report described basic concepts and procedures and dealt with relatively small quantities of data as methods were 'bootstrapped' into existence. This report describes the extension of the procedures to realistic quantities of data. In addition, the methods are applied to two historical mobility assessments that were influential, years ago, in the procurement of some Army vehicles now in the inventory. When the studies were originally done, NRMM was used in a completely deterministic way and no consideration was given to the perturbing effects of uncertain data and of scatter associated with field-data-based algorithms. The analyses were repeated (albeit with greatly limited scope) using stochastic mobility forecasting methods as a means of introducing the NRMM user community to these methods in an inherently interesting way.... Mobility modeling, Stochastic modeling.