Enhanced Forecasting and Allocation of Army Recruiting Resource Study (FAARRS-SHARE).

摘要

This note describes the enhanced forecasting and allocation of Army Recruiting Resources study--sequential hierarchical allocation of resource elements (FAARR-SSHARE) methodology and extensions to it. The results of the calibration and validation of enhanced FAARRS-SHARE and preliminary investigation of the applicability of the system to the Army reserve are presented. Software enhancements are also described. Enhanced FAARRS-SHARE provides the ability to forecast, allocate, and evaluate Army recruiting resources needed for desired accessions. It also provides the capability to evaluate quickly the effects of suggested changes in a program or in resource availabilities. FAARRS-SHARE is based on innovative optimization techniques that provide real time responses to Army downsizing scenarios, including budget implications. The enhanced FAARRS-SHARE system employees a semi-parametric statistical method. Using Data Envelopment Analysis (DEA), an empirical frontier production function form of recruiting is estimated. Using this production function form, a total command annual leave multiplicative function form is estimated from battalion level quarterly data. This form uses goal programming to be consistent with observed Recruiting resource allocation, Accession forecasting, Data envelopment analysis, Frontier production function.