German Strategy and Public Opinion After the Wall, 1990-1993 (Deutsche strategie und oeffentliche meinung nach dem fall der mauer, 1990-1993).

摘要

In the fall of 1990, RAND initiated a multiyear survey to explore how trends in German public opinion could reshape German strategic thinking over the next decade. The purpose of these studies was to address a simple question: How will Germans define their post-Cold War strategic interests. To help answer this question, RAND designed a set of questionnaires focusing on those issues of special interest for the future U.S.-German strategic relationship. A premium was placed on identifying underlying trends and 'building block' issues that might help convey where Germany was headed as a new strategic actor in Europe over the next decade in a radically changed strategic environment. The report focuses on the results of the most recent poll conducted in the fall of 1993 before the January 1994 NATO summit. The report also draws on analyses of the survey work conducted in previous years and sponsored by Project Air Force to present a composite picture of trends in German public opinion on national security and alliance issues since unification. The report integrates the results of interviews with a wide ranging set of German opinion makers from political parties, public opinion experts, and senior officials in the Ministries of Foreign Affairs and Defense on how to assess the implications of these findings. It should be of interest to both American and German policymakers interested in the future of the U.S.- German relationship and the trans-Atlantic Alliance. Chapters address Germany's new geopolitics, Germany and the United States, Germany and Europe, and Germany's future world role. Topics include German vital interests and future competitors, its special relationship toward Eastern Europe, German attitudes toward the United States and Bill Clinton's policies, German attitudes toward NATO, the Bundeswehr and NATO, German attitudes toward the U.S. military presence, Germany and the European Union, and Germany and the United Nations. (2 tables, 46 figures, 20 refs.).