Theater Analysis and Modeling in an Era of Uncertainty: The Present and Future ofWarfare

摘要

This monograph report describes work done as part of the development of the RANDStrategy Assessment System (RSAS), an initiative of the Director of Net Assessment in the Office of the Secretary of Defense to improve the procedures used for analysis and modeling of major regional contingencies and higher-level conflicts. Because many of the key aspects of warfare have changed significantly over the last few years, and likely will change even more significantly in the next decade, a major component of recent RSAS development has been research into the future of warfare. This report summarizes a part of that work, describing some of our vision of the future, and what we believe that vision implies about requirements for military analysis and modeling of major regional contingencies. The work included here has involved war gaming and analysis, has spanned the spectrum of major force operations, and has considered both the present and future of warfare.