Assessing the Vulnerability of Multi-Commodity Networks with Failing Components

摘要

This research proposes an analytical approach for assessing flow disturbance, or'compromise,' based on limited sampling of arc flow information in multi-commodity, or multiple origin-destination (O-D), networks with failing arcs. There were three objectives established for this research. The first objective was to bound the expected flow, given the arcs fail with certain probabilities, which was accomplished by reviewing current approaches for single-commodity networks and extending the results to the multi-commodity case. The second objective was to determine the best placement of flow monitors to obtain the most accurate estimates of O-D pair volumes. This was accomplished using a multi-criteria approach for defining and evaluating all possible monitor placement strategies satisfying monitor availability. The O-D pair volumes were estimated using the 1 sub p-norm metric for varied levels of p. The final objective was to define a compromise metric providing confident assessments on the occurrence of 'compromise'. This was accomplished using simple regression techniques to generate confidence intervals around the expected flow for each O-D pair. The approach proposed in this research is provided as an initial look into 'compromise' assessment based on limited network information.