Some Concepts for Target Trajectory Predictions

摘要

The classical problem of weapons control involves predicting the future positionof a maneuvering target. Methods of target trajectory prediction for ship self-defense against a maneuvering antiship cruise missile (ASCM) are studied. Several prediction schemes are described and studied in the context of a typical single ASCM engagement. Methods of utilizing the estimated threat acceleration and/or a 'goal' hypothesis are considered. 'Terminal Parameters' (TP) for effectively characterizing the threat of a target to the ship are introduced, along with some Measures of Effectiveness (MOE) for comparing the different prediction methods. These TPs and MOEs are illustrated through a simulated engagement involving a hypothesized threat track. An enhancement of defensive capability achieved by utilizing a goal hypothesis is demonstrated.