Estimating Enemy Capabilities and Intentions: The Sword Cuts Both Ways.

摘要

This paper presents the planned U.S. invasion of Japan (1945) as a case study demonstrating the important of the 'estimate of enemy capabilities' to the operational planning process. In the final months prior to the Japanese surrender in August 1945, the Allies were alarmed to note Japanese reinforcement of the planned invasion sites. The Japanese had correctly assessed their enemy's capabilities and intentions, and significantly complicated the final stages of allied invasion planning. Had the invasion been executed, the Japanese strategy of exploiting American 'war weariness' might have succeeded. The lesson is equally applicable to today's operational planners: the enemy is estimating your capabilities and intentions - if he is correct in his assessment, he can counter, disrupt, or seriously complicate your mission.