Evaluation of NWP and Cloud Forecasts from the Phillips Laboratory GlobalSpectral Model

摘要

This report describes the results of a 3O-month effort aimed at evaluatingforecasts of temperature, winds, humidity, and clouds from the advanced physics global spectral model (APGSM) developed by the Phillips Laboratory, in comparison with the currently operational GSM and cloud forecast models at Global Weather Central (GWC). Forecasts out to four days were generated for four separate months of 1989. Results show improved forecasts of thicknesses in the extratropics from the APGSM, but wind forecasts with generally larger errors. Forecasts of humidity are improved at some levels, regions, and forecast lead times, degraded at others. Root mean square errors of total cloud cover forecasts based on APGSM output are lower than those of the currently operational 5-layer model only for those techniques with much too smooth cloudiness distributions. (MM).