Systematic and Integrated Approach To Tropical Cyclone Track Forecasting in the Eastern and Central North Pacific.

摘要

This study is the application of the meteorological framework in the Systematic Approach to tropical cyclone track forecasting of Carr and Elsberry to the eastern and central North Pacific tropical cyclones. All eastern and central North Pacific tropical cyclones from 1990-1993 are examined using 500 mb Navy Operational Global Atmospheric Prediction System streamline and isotach analyses, geostationary satellite imagery, and the tropical cyclone best track information. A four year climatology of Synoptic Patterns, Regions, Pattern/Regions, and transitions is developed. Storm tracks in each Pattern/Region combination reveal a characteristic track motion for each Pattern/Region. Subtropical Ridge Modification is found to be the most important transitional mechanism.