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Spatio-Temporal Patterns of Rainfall Variability for Wet Season over Togo in West Africa

机译:西非多哥湿季降雨变异性的时空格局

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摘要

Climate change is affecting rainfall variability. This paper investigated the June-September (JJAS) rainfall variability using reanalyzed and observed da-tasets from 1976 to 2015 in Togo. The rotated empirical orthogonal function (REOF) method was used to get the distribution patterns of JJAS rainfall. The Mann-Kendall (MK) statistic was also used to detect temporal trend of the ro-tated principal component time series (RPCs) that represent the modes of posi-tive loadings. The REOF method has revealed four significant patterns that ex-plained 65.1% of the total variance; the first, the second and the fourth REOF mod,es exhibit mainly positive loadings, whereas the third exhibits negative loadings. The first mode (REOF1) represents mainly the southern part of Togo; the second mode (REOF2) represents the northern part, the third mode (REOF3) represents the western part and the fourth (REOF4) represents the north-eastern part of Togo. The Mann-Kendall test has revealed an increasing and significant trend of rainfall in the northern region of Togo. In contrast, the trends were not significant in the southern and north-eastern parts of the coun-try. These results form a basis on which adaptation strategies may be taken in this region with high rainfall variability.,
机译:气候变化正在影响降雨的可变性。本文使用重新分析和观测的1976年至2015年多哥的数据集,调查了6月至9月(JJAS)的降雨变化。利用旋转经验正交函数(REOF)方法获得了JJAS降雨的分布规律。 Mann-Kendall(MK)统计信息还用于检测代表正加载模式的旋转主成分时间序列(RPC)的时间趋势。 REOF方法揭示了四个显着模式,占总方差的65.1%。第一种,第二种和第四种REOF模型主要表现出正载荷,而第三种表现出负载荷。第一种模式(REOF1)主要代表多哥的南部;第二种模式(REOF2)代表北部,第三种模式(REOF3)代表西部,第四种模式(REOF4)代表多哥的东北部。曼恩·肯德尔试验表明,多哥北部地区的降雨有明显增加的趋势。相反,在该国的南部和东北部,这种趋势并不明显。这些结果构成了在该地区降雨多变的地区采取适应策略的基础。

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