Spatial and Temporal Variation in Climate Trends in the Kyoga Plains of Uganda: Analysis of Meteorological Data and Farmers’ Perception

摘要

With global warming now a certainty, it’s important to investigate climate change elements at the local level so as to enable stake holders adapt in order to sustain their livelihoods. This study investigated local climate changes, farmers’ perception of the changes and factors affecting perception to climate change in the Kyoga plains of Uganda. Monthly maximum temperature, minimum temperature and total rainfall from four meteorological stations within the study area for period 1984-2014 were obtained to analyse seasonal, annual and decadal trends in rainfall and temperature while a survey based on 384 randomly selected farmers was carried out to investigate the perception of variation in climate change trends among small holder farmers of different socioeconomic characteristics across the Kyoga plains. Multi stage random sampling was applied in the selection of the population sample. Non parametric analysis (Mann Kendall test) was used for analyzing trends and testing significance. In the survey, farmers were asked their observations about the local climate using structured questionnaires and these were analysed using descriptive statics. Logistics regression was then used to identify the factors that determined the perceptions of farmers on climate change. Overall, trends in monthly temperature are increasing over the years but not significantly while rainfall is decreasing but equally not significantly. Seasonal and decadal temperature had significant positive trends at different stations and sub zones over the years. 67% of the farmers realised a decrease in rainfall while 56.8% perceived an increase in temperature across the agroecological zone. 56.3% perceived declining rainfall and 52% realized increasing temperature in the southern sub zone while 42% realised a decrease in rainfall and 40.6%, an increase in temperature in the northern sub zone. Belonging to a group and age has significant positive effect on farmers’ perception of climate while farming experience and access to extension workers had a significant negative effect. The results suggest the need for strengthening networking among farmers for peer learning and support and location specific intervention measures to improve perception and adaptation to climate for each of the sub zones.