The probability of risk is two-pronged. It relates not only to the risk of something undesirable happening, but also to the probable outcome as rated on a scale of negative consequences. For example, based on statistical calculations, we can predict the number of traffic accidents likely to occur per million miles driven. We can also predict the number of injuries and fatalities that will come about as a result. However, such a statistics-based approach will not tell us as individuals where or when we might be involved in an accident ourselves. Those predictive statistics certainly cannot tell us if our next accident will be a fender bender in a shopping center parking lot on a sunny afternoon, or a multivehicle pileup on a dark two-lane road on a stormy night. [...] Each situation carries with it a probability of occurrence and a potential degree of harm that might result. When we subjectively weigh a risk in terms of the undesirable consequence, we might place the outcome anywhere on a scale of undesirability. In the examples above, we might measure the negative outcome in lives lost and property damage in the millions, or simply by wishing we had waited for the next elevator.
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