Cross-impact balances - Applying pair interaction systems and multi-value Kauffman nets to multidisciplinary systems analysis

摘要

Cross-impact analysis is the name for a familiar method for multidisciplinary systems analysis in social sciences and management sciences, especially in technology foresight, technology assessment and scenario planning. A recently proposed form of cross-impact analysis, CIB, may be of interest for physicists, sociophysicists and complex network researchers because the CIB concept reveals considerable relations to some concepts of these research fields. This article describes the basics of CIB analysis framework, its applications in the social sciences, and its relations to the equilibrium points of pair interaction systems, random graphs, and generalized Kauffman nets. Therefore CIB can be seen as a merger of concepts originating in utterly different scientific fields. This may prove to be fruitful for both sides: For sociophysicists as an example of the application of complex network concepts in the social sciences and for cross-impact practitioners as a source of theoretical insights in the background of their tool. (C) 2008 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.