Rigs, recessions and the tyranny of the futures curve

摘要

Ordinarily, clients ask us to prepare forecasts reflecting net demand, calculated as the difference between supply and demand on an annual basis. However, in this case, a forecast for newbuild orders was also requested. The two can differ quite materially. If one were to forecast, say, the demand for housing in Las Vegas in 2005, this might be quite different from the orders for new housing there. Orders reflect matters of behavior independent of demand.