Jubail Start-Up Poses Threat to Asian Refiners

摘要

This year's start-up of Saudi Arabia's 400,000 barrel per day Jubail refinery could lead to a structural shift in the Asia-Pacific gasoil market, as well as potentially blunting Middle Eastern demand for Asian gasoline imports—both possibilities viewed with some trepidation by Asian refiners. Saudi Arabia is currently a net importer of both gasoil and gasoline, but Jubail, which will produce 260,000 b/d of gasoil once it hits its stride, will make the kingdom a net gasoil exporter next year, and a net gasoline exporter by 2015, according to consultancy JBC Energy. By 2015, net Saudi gasoil exports are expected to rise sharply, boosted further by the start-up of the new 400,000 b/d Yanbu refinery. Saudi Arabia's overall product surplus is expected to jump from 600,000 b/d this year to 800,000 b/d in 2015, although Jubail's phased start-up will reduce the immediate pressure on Asian exporters—the refinery is expected to take 12 months to get fully operational, with run rates then likely to average 75%-80% of name-plate capacity, JBC says. All of the plant's crude distillation units should be online by the third quarter, with secondary units only gradually starting up towards the end of 2013 (PIW Jan.28' 13). During this year's first phase, Jubail is expected to produce 50% high-sulfur fuel oil, with the remainder gasoil and naphtha.