Distribution-free prediction intervals for the future current record statistics

摘要

Prediction of records plays an important role in many applications, such as, meteorology, hydrology, industrial stress testing and athletic events. In this paper, based on the observed current records of an iid sequence sample drawn from an arbitrary unknown distribution, we develop distribution-free prediction intervals as well as prediction upper and lower bounds for current records from another iid sequence. We also present sharp upper bounds for the expected lengths of the so obtained prediction intervals. Numerical computations of the coverage probabilities are presented for choosing the appropriate limits of the prediction intervals.