An evidence synthesis approach to estimating Hepatitis C Prevalence in England and Wales

摘要

In England and Wales, routine monitoring has been consistently showing an increase in mortality and morbidity due to infection with the Hepatitis C Virus(HCV). However, the magnitude of the underlying epidemic is still the subject of debate. In this paper we present estimates of the number of individuals aged 15-59 chornically infected with HCV in 2003, derived from a Bayesian synthesis of information available from multiple sources on the size of the groups at risk for HCV and the risk specific anti-HCV prevalence. Results show that the number of chronic infections is of the order of 142,000 (95% Crl: 90,000,231,000), with the majority (85%, 95% Crl: 74%, 93%) in injecting drug users and about 80% (95% Crl: 74%, 84%) in the age group 15-44.