Dealers speculate passenger and truck tire sales volumes will increase

摘要

According to the results of our survey, demand for replacement tires increased modestly in September despite a slightly adverse calendar shift. Indeed, from a volume standpoint the dealers reported they sold 1.1% more tires last month relative to the previous year, following a marginal increase in August and a slight decrease in July. The lack of a harsh winter has been a headwind to demand trends this year, especially given the tough comparisons from the previous two years, but it is apparent some pent-up demand caused by these headwinds was released in September. Additionally, the period's strong demand was aided by higher employment and lower fuel prices. Despite the slowdown in demand trends over the last few months, we continue to believe that a favorable backdrop, including lower fuel prices, solid job growth, and healthy miles driven trends should lead to decent volume growth throughout the rest of 2H16, regardless of the tough comparisons from 2015. It is worth noting that most dealers shared this sentiment, as a large percentage of respondents indicated that they anticipate trends to improve throughout the next three months.