Prediction of Solar Cycle 24 Using Sunspot Number near the Cycle Minimum

摘要

Correlations between monthly smoothed sunspot numbers at the solar-cycle maximum [Rmax] and duration of the ascending phase of the cycle [Trise], on the one hand, and sunspot-number parameters (values, differences and sums) near the cycle minimum, on the other hand, are studied. It is found that sunspot numbers two - three years around minimum correlate with R_(max) or T_(rise) better than those exactly at the minimum. The strongest correlation (Pearson's r = 0.93 with P <0.001 and Spearman's rank correlation coefficient r_S = 0.95 with P = 9×10~(?12)) proved to be between Rmax and the sum of the increase of activity over 30 months after the cycle minimum and the drop of activity over 30 or 36 months before the minimum. Several predictions of maximal amplitude and duration of the ascending phase for Solar Cycle 24 are given using sunspot-number parameters as precursors. All of the predictions indicate that Solar Cycle 24 is expected to reach a maximal smoothed monthly sunspot number (SSN) of 70 - 100. The prediction based on the best correlation yields the maximal amplitude of 90 ± 12. The maximum of Solar Cycle 24 is expected to be in December 2013 - January 2014. The rising and declining phases of Solar Cycle 24 are estimated to be about 5.0 and 6.3 years, respectively. The minimum epoch between Solar Cycles 24 and 25 is predicted to be at 2020.3 with minimal SSN of 5.1 - 5.4.We predict also that Solar Cycle 25 will be slightly stronger than Solar Cycle 24; its maximal SSN will be of 105 - 110.