The Delphi method: an efficient procedure to generate knowledge.

摘要

Physicians base the recommendations and decisions they make in daily practice on the results of clinical research findings. Results from randomized trials and systematic reviews inform physicians about the effects of treatments, and cross-sectional studies inform them about the accuracy of diagnostic tests. Researchers and clinical experts strive to increase the knowledge and to generate a solid knowledge base of medicine to support physicians in caring for patients. However, not all relevant questions in medicine can be answered by conventional research methods based on patient data, and in some instances there are more effective methods for creating knowledge that are pertinent to patient care. For example, conventional methods may not be useful when there is conflicting scientific evidence, when accurate information is not available, and when judgmental information is required. An alternative for such situations is to ask experts what they think and collect their knowledge in a structured and systematic way.