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Compression or expansion of morbidity? Trends in healthy-life expectancy in the elderly Austrian population between 1978 and 1998.

机译:压缩或扩大发病率? 1978年至1998年之间,奥地利老年人口健康预期寿命的趋势。

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The aim of our study is to test the theories of compression or expansion of morbidity on the basis of data on the elderly population of Austria. Our data come from four microcensus surveys for the years 1978, 1983, 1991, and 1998. We use self-perceived health ratings to calculate healthy-life expectancy for the elderly population aged 60-89. Because our data are based on four cross-sectional surveys, we devote the first part of the paper to the consequences of possible sampling and non-sampling errors in our analysis of time trends. We come to the conclusion that, although the absolute number of years lived in good health may be overestimated, the time trend in healthy-life expectancy over the 20 years most probably is unbiased. The second part of the paper describes trends in healthy-life expectancy for the Austrian population. Our results suggest that both healthy-life expectancy and the ratio of healthy years to life expectancy increased between 1978 and 1998. Thus, in Austria ill health seems to be more and more compressed into the later years of life. Contrary to Fries's hypothesis, however, life expectancy does not seem to be approaching a maximum average life span in Austria, as mortality rates at older ages have been continuously decreasing over the last 20 years.
机译:我们研究的目的是根据奥地利老年人口的数据检验发病率压缩或扩大的理论。我们的数据来自1978年,1983年,1991年和1998年的四次微普查。我们使用自我感知的健康等级来计算60-89岁老年人的健康寿命。由于我们的数据基于四个横断面调查,因此我们在时间趋势分析中将本文的第一部分专门介绍了可能的采样和非采样错误的后果。我们得出的结论是,尽管可能过高估计了绝对健康的绝对年限,但20年中预期寿命的时间趋势很可能是无偏的。本文的第二部分描述了奥地利人口健康预期寿命的趋势。我们的结果表明,在1978年至1998年之间,健康预期寿命和健康年均预期寿命的比率都增加了。因此,在奥地利,疾病的健康似乎越来越多地压缩到生命的后期。然而,与弗里斯的假设相反,奥地利的预期寿命似乎未达到最大平均寿命,因为在过去20年中,老年人的死亡率一直在不断下降。

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