Analysis of different effects on longevity in four sheep breeds of northern Germany

摘要

The lifetime performance of female sheep is one of the most important economic traits in sheep husbandry. In this investigation, a Weibull model was used to study the effects of breed', number of lambings', age at first lambing', type of birth' and farm' on the length of productive life (LPL). The data included records of 5191 female sheep of four different breeds on 236 breeding farms in northern Germany. The observation period in which the sheep were born or were removed from the farm ranged from January 2003 to December 2007. About 12% of the records were right-censored. All variables had a significant effect on LPL at a level of p <0.001 except type of birth'. The German Blackheaded Mutton breed showed the lowest risk ratio with 0.77 (SE=0.17), while the Texel had the highest hazard rate (1.00). The relative culling risk initially decreased from the first (5.73, SE=0.09) to the seventh lambing (0.36, SE=0.12), and then increased until lambing number nine. The highest relative culling risk was calculated at an age of 395 to less than 455 days at first lambing (1.00). Animals younger than 395 days at first lambing showed the lowest risk ratio (0.56, SE=0.05). The culling risk for the effect farm' ranged from 0.3 to 3.1. A differentiation of environmental, housing or management effects was not feasible with this data. But the results offer some interesting options for further studies.