Otter (Lutra lutra) distribution modeling at two resolution scales suited to conservation planning in the Iberian Peninsula

摘要

We used the results of the Spanish Otter Survey of 1994-1996, a Geographic Information System and stepwise multiple logistic regression to model otter presence/absence data in the continental Spanish UTM 10 x 10-km squares. Geographic situation, indicators of human activity such as highways and major urban centers, and environmental variables related with productivity, water availability, altitude, and environmental energy were included in a logistic model that correctly classified about 73% of otter presences and absences. We extrapolated the model to the adjacent territory of Portugal, and increased the model's spatial resolution by extrapolating it to I x 1-km squares in the whole Iberian Peninsula. The model turned out to be rather flexible, predicting, for instance, the species to be very restricted to the courses of rivers in some areas, and more widespread in others. This allowed us to determine areas where otter populations may be more vulnerable to habitat changes or harmful human interventions.