Prognosis following endoscopic injection sclerotherapy for esophageal varices in adults: 20-year follow-up study.

摘要

OBJECTIVE: Endoscopic injection sclerotherapy (EIS) is beneficial in the management of active hemorrhaging and prevention of recurrent bleeding from esophageal varices. However, its long-term efficacy and safety are poorly defined. The aim of this study was to determine long-term cumulative survival and clarify negative predictive factors for survival following EIS in patients with esophageal varices. MATERIAL AND METHODS: Between 1981 and 1987, 72 patients were prospectively enrolled in a post-EIS follow-up program. Variceal rebleeding, recurrence, and survival were recorded in follow-up examinations conducted for up to 20 years. RESULTS: The mean follow-up period was 86.9 months. The cumulative survival rates were 65.2%, 53.6%, 26.1%, and 11.6% at 36, 60, 120, and 240 months, respectively, with liver failure the most common cause of death. Esophageal varices were eradicated in 93.1% of the patients following EIS and no recurrence of varices was seen beyond 7 years. Significant negative predictive factors for survival rate shown by Cox's proportional multivariate hazard model analysis were older age, advanced liver damage, presence of hepatocellular carcinoma, and occurrence of rebleeding. CONCLUSIONS: Long-term survival, rebleeding, and recurrence rates following EIS were clarified. Furthermore, our results clearly demonstrate negative predictive factors for survival after EIS.