The fiscal 1997 volume forecast for U.S. wheat and flour exports is reduced 4 million tons from USDA's August estimate to 22 million tons. Export value is reduced 900 dollar million to 3.9 dollar billion due to lower export volume and lower average prices. U.S. wheat export volume is significantly reduced mainly due to increased export competition from the European Union (EU-15), Argentina, and Australia. The EU-15 produced its largest wheat crop on record in 1996, and after a 15-month hiatus, has returned to the use of export subsidies. Argentina and Australia are now harvesting what is expected to be their second largest wheat crops on record. Higher global output has resulted in a sharp drop in world wheat prices. The fiscal 1997 forecast for U.S. coarse grain shipments is lowered 2 million tons and 1.3 dollar billion from August's forecast to 56 million tons valued at 7.3 dollar billion. The export outlook for coarse grain shipments is reduced due to a downward revision in corn exports. The volume forecast for U.S. corn exports is reduced 2 million tons to 49.5 million tons due to larger crops in some key importing countries and increased availability of foreign feed grain supplies, including feed-quality wheat. Corn export value is reduced 1.1 dollar billion to 6.5 dollar billion due to lower export volume and lower prices. Reduced prices are expected because of an upward revision in U.S. corn production since August. The fiscal 1997 forecast for U.S. rice exports remains unchanged from theAugust forecast at 2.3 million tons valued at 900 dollar million. Prices are expected to remain strong due to tighter domestic supplies of long-grain rice. Demand in Latin American markets is expected to remain strong for imported long-grain rice, and Japan is expected to import more medium-grain rice in fiscal 1997 to fulfill GATT obligations. The volume forecast for fiscal 1997 exports of U.S. oilseeds and products is raised 1.9 million tons from the August estimate to 32.7 million tons, largely due to an upward revision in soybean and soybean meal shipments. However, total export value for oilseeds and products is lowered 600 dollar million to 9.8 dollar billion mainly because of downward revisions in soybean and product prices. The forecast for soybean exports is raised 1.4 million tons to 23.7 million tons, while export value is lowered 300 dollar million to 6.4 dollar billion. The volume forecast for U.S. soybeans is raised largely due to an upward revision in the domestic soybean crop since August, reduced competition from Argentina, and an expected increase in sales to China. Weaker export prices for soybeans are the result of upward revisions in U.S. soybean production and ending stocks. Expanded domestic crushing is expected to reduce soybean meal prices, which in turn should boost meal exports. The soybean oil export forecast remains largely unchanged at 800,000 tons valued at 400 dollar million. China is still expected to enter the market as a major buyer of oilseeds and products.
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