Vegetable Oil Market Will Strongly Depend on Large Soybean Crushings in 2015/16

摘要

In the season 2014/15 the growth in world production of vegetable oils is likely to slow down pronouncedly to only around 3.1 Mn T, compared to the outstanding growth of 10.2 Mn T the year before. This massive slowdown is partly resulting from smaller supplies of oilseeds and of palm oil but also reflects lower requirements. In particular the decline of global biodiesel production is making a difference as it is reversing the steep uptrend seen in preceding years. Biodiesel production is still in the doldrums in Argentina because discretionary blending virtually came to a standstill and could be offset only partly by rising biodiesel exports to the US. Also in Indonesia biodiesel production is on a steep downtrend this season. The Indonesian Government has started to collect palm oil export levies but the intended financing of biodiesel subsidies will reportedly start only in August so that a possible revival of Indonesian biodiesel production may become a market-moving factor only in 2015/16.