NEW ZEALAND

摘要

Recent strong economic growth is projected to moderate to less than 3% in 2018. Both net migration and expenditure on the Canterbury earthquake rebuild are expected to slow gradually, slowing domestic demand, especially construction activity. The latest earthquake will entail rebuilding investment, but this is not included in the projection because it is too early to judge the economic effects. Growth will continue to be driven by tourism, with dairy price increases providing a further boost to incomes through the terms of trade. Inflation is likely to rise but remain below the mid-point of the official 1-3% target range.