GENERAL ASSESSMENT OF THE MACROECONOMIC SITUATION

摘要

1.Growth is projected to remain modest by past norms, and unemployment is set to stay much above pre-crisis levels in many economies. Prospects for moderate improvements differ across both advanced and emerging economies. 1.1 In the advanced economies, growth is set to be stronger in the United States and the United Kingdom than in the euro area and Japan. Unemployment will remain particularly high in the euro area. 1.2 In the emerging market economies, growth will edge down in China, remain weak in Russia and Brazil, but will recover steadily in India, Indonesia and South Africa. 2. World trade growth is expected to pick up a bit, with trade intensity growing again after the stagnation in recent years, but at a slower rate than prior to the crisis.