Spatially identifying vulnerable communities to climate change impact in South Australia

摘要

The impending form and extent of climate change and its direct impacts present disproportionate challenges for the most socially and economically disadvantaged groups within populations. Evaluating the vulnerability of disadvantaged groups in the context of climate change has presented tremendous theoretical, methodological and policy challenges especially where vulnerability assessment research is focused at the local community level. This study addresses the challenges by developing an interdisciplinary methodology, based on expert knowledge, and uses the state of South Australia as a case study. It focuses on key indicators that measure the exposure of local communities to climate change and socio-economic vulnerabilities of local populations. A main contribution in this study is the novel incorporation of physical, environmental and socio-demographic data sets and extensive use of spatial modelling and estimation methods to spatially define climate change and social vulnerability "hot spots". This paper assesses vulnerability under moderate and high Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change CO_2 emission scenarios in order to generate an assessment model to be used before planning is done. The result is the creation of a practical tool through which decision-makers can better understand how the complexity of one's local spatial context influences the unique exposure, which different vulnerable communities have, to the impacts of climate change. This paper presents a useful tool that can be used in the initial assessment phase by planners and policy-makers to better assist those who are limited in their ability to adapt to climate change.