Going beyond landscape change description: quantifying the importance of driving forces of landscape change in a Central Europe case study.

摘要

Over the past decades, urban sprawl and agricultural intensification have enormously changed the traditional cultural landscape of the Swiss lowlands. This research aims to analyze the driving forces of urbanization, agricultural intensification, and greening in five municipalities of the periurban Limmat Valley, near Zurich, Switzerland. The main objectives of the paper are (1) to quantify the change in urbanization, agricultural intensification, and greening, (2) to determine the driving forces of landscape change, (3) to determine the relative importance of socioeconomic, political, cultural, technological, and natural/spatial driving forces, and (4) to establish from which administrative levels and spatial scales the most important driving forces originate. Changes for the periods 1930-1956, 1957-1976, and 1977-2000 are documented based on a comparison of cartographic maps. A list of 73 potentially relevant driving forces is established based on document analysis. Based on further document analysis and expert interviews, 52 of them were found to be relevant primary driving forces for the documented landscape changes. We found that in all three periods, urbanization was the most important process of change. Greening is steadily increasing in importance and surpassed agricultural intensification in the last period. Overall, as well as for urbanization, the economic driving forces, followed by political driving forces, are most important for landscape changes in all three periods. Cantonal driving forces are most important, followed by the national, local and international driving forces. By presenting an approach to quantify the contribution of major driving forces groups to landscape change this study contributes to method development in land change research.