Probabilistic description of stock movement at the terminal with regular completion

摘要

Regular replenishment mode is often used in a supply chain. Corresponding logistics must take into account conditions prevailing in a wide range of practical problems. This primarily relates to a technique for analyzing stochastic processes that determine the movement of inventory in stock. Today, researchers are addressing these logistical problems in varying degrees. However, largely used approaches have heuristic character. The researchers concentrated their attention more on the economic aspects of the problem, rather than on the probability of trouble-free operation of the repository. In the report, the problems associated with the movement and storage of stocks at the terminal with regular completion are considered. As an illustrative example, the movement of petroleum feedstock across the sea port terminal is considered. Stochastic processes in conditions of minimal organizational boundaries are analyzed using the theory of Poisson processes. This allowed obtain quantitative relations for the probabilistic description of surplus and required insurance reserves of oil in storage. Verification of results was done with the help of computer simulation.