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Multiphysics superensemble forecast applied to Mediterranean heavy precipitation situations

机译:多物理场超集合预报应用于地中海强降水情况

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摘要

The high-impact precipitation events that regularly affect the western Mediterranean coastal regions are still difficult to predict with the current prediction systems. Bearing this in mind, this paper focuses on the superensemble technique applied to the precipitation field. Encouraged by the skill shown by a previous multiphysics ensemble prediction system applied to western Mediterranean precipitation events, the superensemble is fed with this ensemble. The training phase of the superensemble contributes to the actual forecast with weights obtained by comparing the past performance of the ensemble members and the corresponding observed states. The non-hydrostatic MM5 mesoscale model is used to run the multiphysics ensemble. Simulations are performed with a 22.5 km resolution domain (Domain 1 in http://mm5forecasts.uib. es) nested in the ECMWF forecast fields. The period between September and December 2001 is used to train the superensemble and a collection of 19 MEDEX cyclones is used to test it. The verification procedure involves testing the superensemble performance and comparing it with that of the poor-man and bias-corrected ensemble mean and the multiphysic EPS control member. The results emphasize the need of a well-behaved training phase to obtain good results with the superensemble technique. A strategy to obtain this improved training phase is already outlined.
机译:用当前的预报系统仍然很难预测经常影响地中海西部沿海地区的高影响降水事件。考虑到这一点,本文着重介绍了应用于降水场的超集成技术。受到先前应用于地中海西部降水事件的多物理场合奏预测系统所显示技能的鼓舞,超级合奏被赋予了这种合奏。超级合奏的训练阶段使用权重,通过比较合奏成员的过去表现和相应的观察状态获得权重,从而有助于实际预测。非静水MM5中尺度模型用于运行多物理场合奏。使用嵌套在ECMWF预测字段中的22.5 km分辨率域(http://mm5forecasts.uib。es中的域1)进行模拟。 2001年9月至2001年12月这段时间用于训练超级合奏,并使用19个MEDEX旋风分离器进行测试。验证过程包括测试超级合奏的性能,并将其与穷人和偏差校正的合奏平均值以及多物理量EPS控制成员的性能进行比较。结果强调,需要有一个训练有素的训练阶段,才能利用超级合奏技术获得良好的成绩。已经概述了获得改进的培训阶段的策略。

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