Analysis of the cross-correlation between seismicity and water level in the Aswan area (Egypt) from 1982 to 2010

摘要

In this study the correlation between the monthly fluctuations of the water level of the Aswan High Dam and monthly number of earthquakes from 1982 to 2010, which occurred in the surrounding area, was investigated. Our findings reveal that significant correlation is present during the period 1982-1993 between water level and shallow seismicity (depth less than 15 km). The deep seismicity (depth larger than 15 km) is significantly correlated with the water level between January and April 1989. The time lag of the significant maximal cross-correlation varies from 2-8 months for the shallow seismicity, while it is around 7-8 months for the deep seismicity. These values of the time lags could be in favour of the presence of two distinct triggering mechanisms: one due to pore pressure diffusion and the other due to fracture compaction (undrained response).