Reliability of methods used for pipeline hazard evaluation in view of potential risk factors

摘要

Reliable evaluation of linear objects resistance is an essential problem in highly developed areas which are subjected to seismic tremors and continuous surface deformations. Results of analyses of pipeline failures generated by continuous surface deformations are discussed in this paper. The development of a failure in a water pipeline under the influence of a 10-year subsidence of terrain to a depth of 4 m and horizontal deformations to 9.0 mm/m is presented. The research is focused on evaluating the reliability of approximate method which is presently used for assessing pipeline resistance. The more thorough investigation based on empirical data from a region subjected to intense and continuous surface deformations allowed for the estimation of factors having a decisive influence on the pipeline resistance. This result is crucial for further works on modeling hazard in this type of objects. The obtained risk factors and their rank will create basis for construing a new model for assessing linear objects hazard with continuous deformations.